Op-Ed by: Tony Rosyid*
Unlike Ganjar Pranowo and Agus H. Yudhoyono (AHY), Anies Baswedan has inner strength within himself. Anies has a track record, narration, ability to generate ideas and solutions that surpass most other candidates. Anies only needs ticket and party support. If these conditions are met, Anies will land safe and sound.
AMONG the names of presidential candidates that appear on the list, Anies Baswedan’s is the most widely discussed by the public. The longer, the more popular.
His electability also has the potential to continue to rise. Judging from the trend so far, Anies has the most opportunity to become President of the Republic of Indonesia from 2024-2029.
How you calculate it?
First, a survey about natural surge of Anies’ name, it is without engineering. The surveys carried out by survey agencies free of charge and without any contract with Anies. Not a paid or order survey. The result? Translucent to two digits. In fact, Anies does not have a team, and has not done political branding yet.
Second, the public has high hopes for Anies. This can be seen from the public’s enthusiasm for Anies. Whatever news about Anies gets a lot of public response. You can check in the media.
Every time there is an attempt to discredit him, public reaction would be enormous. There is a kind of “wave of resistance” against those who are hostile to attack Anies.
They “unwittingly” would become Anies’ defense force. And this spreads in various regions. It happens organically, naturally. There is nothing to control and shift it.
Third, Anies’ declaration for President spread quickly and evenly in all regions. Anies’ volunteers are many and varied. The volunteers have formed their own lifeboats organically and pay the costs themselves.
There are many groups of Anies volunteers, starting with the name ANIES (Indonesian Prosperous National Alliance), Buddy Anies, Kawan Anies, ABC (Anies Baswedan Club) which has volunteers in 24 provinces, Millennial Anies in South Sulawesi and Central Sulawesi, Satria, ABF (Anies Baswedan Fans), GAS (Arek Suroboyo Movement), Rapi (Volunteer of Anies President of Indonesia) Kalimantan, KRPB, Urang Awak West Sumatra, Jawara Banten, and many more. The list is too long to mention in this article.
This shows that the people are moving organically to make Anies 2024 become the nation’s leader in 2024. It would be soon in national scale, after Anies’ retirement from his governorship.
Fourth, Anies has a lot of content that can later be used as capital to be advertised to the public. The contents in question are the results of work, achievements and awards received by Anies during his five years leading Jakarta. In this regard, Anies stands out and surpasses most other provincial heads of government.
Fifth, Anies has the power of narrative, well-versed. This is the fruit of authentic natural intelligence, polished throughout his empirical experience. In his head, he clearly pictures issues, problems, and solutions. He would articulate his response in sharp, clear and yet down-to-earth language. Nobody could beat him in this regard.
This treasure becomes a capital that has a big influence to be expressed during the presidential debate and doorsteps or impromptu interviews.
There have been five presidential and vice presidential debates to be held by the KPU. The majority of the people will watch this debate. They would listen and enjoyAnies’ performance, and would discuss it post factum.
At the coffee shop, the pedicab drivers talk, the farmers hang out in the fields, small discussions with low-level employees to the manager and director level, all will talk about the course of the debate, complete with conclusions.
Here lies Anies magnetism and power. Anies’ narrative is predicted to be able to reach the hearts and positive perceptions of the public.
I used this debate model as a variable when calculating the “2017 DKI gubernatorial election”.
The day before the first round of the DKI gubernatorial election, I wrote an article with the title “Ahok Ends, Anies Spreads, AHY Future Leaders”.
That is, AHY would lose, but have a chance in the future. AHY’s age is still young, there will always be an opportunity if he doesn’t make a mistake.
My analysis of the 2017 DKI Pilgub was ridiculed by a number of activist friends. At that time, Anies’ electability was the lowest. Far from Ahok and AHY. They believe that AHY would win.
In fact, “sunnatullah” can be explained by scientific standards that Anies Baswedan won. In this context, the identification of variables must be precise.
To friends in one of the WhatsApp groups who believed that Ahok would win, there were Eva Sundari and Guntur Romli. I told them: 1 billion rupiahs I will prepare if Ahok wins. In fact, Ahok did lose.
This is just a matter of calculation, each of us has our own beliefs and reference.
Talking about AHY 2017, it’s similar to today’s Ganjar Pranowo. The electability is quite high, according to the survey announcements right or wrong. But it is vulnerable. Ganjar has no foundation on his electability. There is no strength in Ganjar that can be advertised to the public to increase his electability.
Ganjar needs the support of other parties, such as PDIP or Pak Jokowi. Without external support, Ganjar’s electability will stagnate and remain unchanged. That is it.
Ganjar is at a dead end. He would survive this election if he is supported by the other party. He only has ‘dead cards’ in his pocket.
If PDIP does not give Ganjar a ticket, complete with the full support of its political machine, or Pak Jokowi does not support him with all the access to power at his disposal, Ganjar’s hopes will be dimmed. Or. finished.
Like AHY 2017, the electability is immediately high, because it is based on psychological and sociological support.
AHY is handsome, cool and the son of SBY (former president for two terms). Good looking. Psychologically, this is an attraction. Sociologically, AHY is of Javanese descent and his candidate deputy is from Betawi.
Most of the voters in Jakarta are from Java, and the number of Betawi residents is also quite large.
When the AHY-Silvie pair was announced, their electability skyrocketed. However, because this electability is obtained from outside elements, it becomes very vulnerable. Evidently, AHY’s electability then declined.
Unlike Ganjar and AHY, Anies has inner strength from within. Anies has a track record, narration, ability to generate ideas and solutions, surpassing most other candidates.
Anies only needs tickets and party supports. If these conditions are met, Anies will land safely and soundly.
The five reasons above are sufficient to coclude that Mrl Anies Baswedan has the most requirements and chance to be elected president of the Republic of Indonesia in 2024-2029.
*Writer, free-lance political observer
